As the threat landscape keeps shifting, security teams are being asked to do more than react. They are expected to look ahead, connect the dots, and make decisions in environments that change faster every year. That challenge was at the heart of Rapid7’s 2026 Security Predictions webinar, where our experts reflected on what the past year revealed about attacker behavior, defender priorities, and the realities of running a modern SOC.

The conversation looked back just long enough to spot the patterns that matter, then turned forward to the forces shaping 2026. Geopolitics, insider risk, and the need for context-driven defense all surfaced repeatedly. The takeaway was simple but important. Attackers are adapting quickly, and security teams need to adapt with the same urgency.

Below are the key takeaways from the discussion, along with the top predictions shaping the year ahead.

Key takeaways from the discussion

The threat landscape is no longer isolated

One of the strongest themes from the webinar was how interconnected today’s risks have become. Cyber activity does not exist in a vacuum. Geopolitical tensions, economic pressure, workforce challenges, and technological acceleration all feed directly into attacker behavior.

Security teams can no longer separate cyber risk from broader business and global risk. Decisions made outside the SOC, from supplier choices to workforce strategy, increasingly influence exposure and attack paths.

Identity and access remain the most reliable attack paths

Despite continued investment in perimeter defenses, attackers are still finding success through compromised credentials, misused access, and human error. The webinar panel reinforced that identity-based compromise remains one of the most consistent and scalable techniques used by threat actors.

This means defenders must treat identity, behavior, and access governance as core detection and response signals, not secondary controls.

Speed without context creates noise, not security

The rise of AI-driven attacks and automation has increased the volume and pace of activity security teams must process. However, the panel stressed that faster alerts alone do not improve outcomes.

Without understanding which assets matter, which exposures are exploitable, and which alerts represent real risk, teams risk moving quickly in the wrong direction. Context is now essential for effective prioritization and response.

The top cybersecurity predictions for 2026

1. Geopolitical fault lines will redraw the cyber battlefield

In 2026, geopolitical tensions will continue to spill into the digital domain, with private organizations increasingly caught in the middle. State-aligned and state-tolerated groups will target critical supply chains, service providers, and global enterprises as proxy targets, blending espionage with economic disruption.

For security teams, this means geopolitical risk must be factored into threat modeling, vendor assessments, and incident response planning. Even organizations far from traditional conflict zones may find themselves impacted by campaigns tied to global tensions.

2. Insider threats will dominate breach root causes

The panel highlighted that many of tomorrow’s breaches will not start with attackers breaking in, but with access already in place. Insider threats, driven by simple negligence, compromised credentials, or monetized access selling, will continue to rise.

Economic stress, workforce changes, and growing access complexity all contribute to this trend. As a result, organizations must focus more on access hygiene, behavior monitoring, and creating environments where employees can report mistakes early without fear.

3. Context will become the new currency of cyber performance

As attacks scale and exploitation windows shrink, the ability to understand what matters most will define successful security operations. The panel emphasized that visibility alone is no longer enough.

Security teams that integrate exposure management, detection, and response will outperform those relying on disconnected tools and alert-heavy workflows. Context-rich defense allows teams to triage faster, investigate smarter, and respond based on real business risk rather than alert volume.

What this means for security teams heading into 2026

The predictions shared during the webinar point to a future where success depends less on adding more tools and more on using intelligence, context, and automation effectively. Security teams that can unify visibility, prioritize risk, and act decisively will be better positioned to keep pace with increasingly adaptive attackers.

The message from the panel was clear. 2026 will reward teams that focus on understanding their environment, aligning security efforts with real-world risk, and preparing for threats shaped by forces far beyond the SOC.

Watch the 2026 Security Predictions webinar to hear directly from Rapid7’s experts on what’s shaping the threat landscape and how security teams should prepare.